Description

This analysis provides a forecast of LPT prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-01 4.461083 5.316355 6.268009 7.402047 8.713069 10.177406 11.933003
2025-06-08 3.333611 4.459596 5.839825 7.642014 9.917205 12.676900 16.258314
2025-06-15 2.550965 3.770695 5.394229 7.681644 10.783864 14.802212 20.350327
2025-06-22 1.907017 3.089134 4.784512 7.340146 11.029449 16.084893 23.439397
2025-06-29 1.531243 2.691009 4.467146 7.305580 11.626573 17.833446 27.261843
2025-07-06 1.249071 2.368353 4.189400 7.258135 12.157067 19.493427 31.066529
2025-07-13 1.121069 2.268809 4.234638 7.697957 13.448610 22.359202 36.852981
2025-07-20 0.982268 2.119119 4.165993 7.929343 14.415946 24.794390 42.165120
2025-07-27 0.887804 2.031238 4.185789 8.302402 15.638155 27.712626 48.435190
2025-08-03 0.760614 1.851640 4.007700 8.294516 16.198873 29.589596 53.160415
2025-08-10 0.623739 1.621647 3.694770 7.990606 16.194405 30.506458 56.352665
2025-08-17 0.512352 1.422166 3.407729 7.691203 16.152960 31.335436 59.428905
2025-08-24 0.441168 1.302763 3.271872 7.681312 16.666615 33.205866 64.490942
2025-08-31 0.385221 1.208141 3.174355 7.736812 17.310889 35.361778 70.214646
2025-09-07 0.332096 1.107727 3.046406 7.708575 17.781938 37.229816 75.545481
2025-09-14 0.268506 0.961062 2.782774 7.342614 17.519786 37.688344 78.312483
2025-09-21 0.231539 0.881620 2.669078 7.299695 17.924248 39.449620 83.620084
2025-09-28 0.199713 0.808959 2.559295 7.249311 18.303270 41.182001 88.976528
2025-10-05 0.191083 0.810047 2.646151 7.687542 19.801363 45.259308 99.122940
2025-10-12 0.175384 0.782696 2.650027 7.918240 20.850247 48.487848 107.784453
2025-10-19 0.165714 0.774425 2.706756 8.290686 22.257124 52.546789 118.327671
2025-10-26 0.145636 0.721221 2.622616 8.282754 22.770199 54.759547 125.268779
2025-11-02 0.120696 0.640210 2.438396 7.979205 22.543612 55.372470 128.966564